The Dictator of Libya Thought He was Covered

"When the people decide one day that they want (free) life, fate will have to answer" (Tunisian poet Abul Qasem al-Shabbi)

"Truly, God will not change the conditions of people until they change what is in themselves" (Quran, 13:11)

Media reports suggest that after the 2003 regime change in Iraq, Qaddafi cut a deal with western powers: He would surrender his weapons and pay reperations for the Lockerbie bombing in exchange for western silence on regime change in Libya. So, Qaddafi, who has always posed as an anti-imperialist revolutionary, has come to believe that his reign will be safe so long as he in good terms with foreign powers. He never imagined that regime change is possible from within. His day of reckoning may have just come. Massive demonstrations in Benghazi and other towns across Libya began on February 15, 2011, dubbed by revolutionaries the Tuesday of Rage. It started after security forces shot demonstrators expressing their opposition to the arrest of a lawyer in the case of the 1,200 killed in BouSliem prison.

Thus far leaders in Washington and European capitals are keeping their end of the bargain by keeping their mouths shut (although western news media is now reporting massacres. See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12517327, February 20, 2011). Qaddafi has always claimed that he only sits at the helm of a people power political system. It is clear he never believed his own slogans. He cut internet and satellite communications and sent his security forces to the streets in a bid for a speedy repression of the revolt through a treatment akin to what happened in Algiers in 1988or Tiananmen Square in 1989: Kill a large number of people quickly to scare the rest of the population before the revolt picks momentum and reaches a point of no return.

The plan is being executed now ruthlessly; witnesses tell al-Jazeera the situation there looks like Gaza (2008/2009). But the indiscriminate shootings by members of the Qaddafi Brigades are not bringing out the hoped results. Living between the Egyptians on the East and Tunisians on the West, the Libyans have had enough inspiration to shed their own shackles of fear. They were enraged by the dictator's indirect moking of them when he went on national television to fault the victorious Tunisians after their dictators fled the country. The Libyans had already been fed up; now they are willing to die to topple the Qaddafi regime. Al-Jazeera reports that people are spending nights in public squares because Qaddafi is sending henchment to homes. Zantan, Warfalla and other tribal and religious leaders across the country are calling people to come out. People are protecting vital installations and surrounding special forces bases. In Al-Zawiyah, however, they burned down Qaddafi's residence. The Qaddafi forces have killed and injured are in the hundreds.

Qaddafi TV showed the dictator out demonstrating with his supporters (Revolutionary Committees and Populare Committees) in downtown Tripoli shouting epithets at al-Jazeera. Today, Febraury 20, 2011, the revolt has reached the capital. The first myrter to fall was in the area of Tajoura. Now, according to witness accounts reported by al-Jazeera there is a large demonstration in Sayyibi Street, near the opposition stronghold of Sidi Khliefa. Qaddafi has downtown heavily secured, so people are settling for localized demonstrations. Still, judges, lawyers and university professors, risking their lives to test the regime, are demonstrating at the Courts Complex in downtown.

People are sending reports to the outside world via phone. Twitter has posted phone numbers for people to send reports. Breaking the information blackout gives protesters hope that they are not isolated from the world. Qaddafi's henchmen are monitoring world media. Their morale is breaking apart, because their defenseless people are able to stay in touch with the world and remain undeterred by repression. It will be only time before the regime falls.

If Qaddafi followed his own propaganda, he should have already conceded. He has always argued that the people own and rule Libya. But now he is trying to cling to power despite the tremendous expression of people will against him. Even soldiers, officers and local members of Qaddafi's Revolutionary Committees are yielding to people power in much of Libya.

What do Libyans want? If one knows what Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis, and Bahrainis want then it is not hard to imagine what their Libyan brothers and sisters took to the streets for. It's freedom and emanicipation. The Libyan revolutionaries are copying slogans and demands from their neighbors to the East and West, because their conditions appear similar. But the level of rage in Libya is even higher after 42 years of Qaddafi's rule that squandered the nation's wealth in failed adventures and corruption and repression. Libya is oil-rich with a relatively small population that is increasingly jobless and poor. It took Tunisians 23 days to force Ben Ali out; it took Egyptians 19 days to scratch off the tip of the Egyptian power pyramid; the Libyan revolt is now in the fourth day (February 20, 2011). It took the Egyptians 11 days to start their revolt after the departure of Ben Ali. It took the Libyans only three days to rise up after Mubarak stepped down. The accelerated movement of the anti-dictatorship tsunami has become a pattern. It is safe to predict that the overthrow of Qaddafi and his family will be much more speedy. But Libyans too will face the daunting task of transition to inclusive, democratic rule.