Bahrain: The Next Target of the Arab Anti-Dictatorship Revolution

The Bahrain revolt is picking up momentum, thanks to the insulting offer of the ruling family to buy the political freedom of Bahrainis for $2,650 per family. The Al-Khalifa plan backfired. Add to this the brutality of the security forces that killed so far 2 protesters. The ingredients for mass revolt are here: giving people victims to parade in public and offending their sense of honor and self-worth.

And the protesters are copying their Tunisian and Egyptian brothers and sisters, using the familiar slogan: "The people want to depose the regime." Yet the Bahrainis are presenting realistic demands for the new political economy they want:

release of political prisoners;
more jobs and housing;
the creation of a more representative and empowered parliament;
a new constitution written by the people; and
a new cabinet that does not include Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Al Khalifa, who has been in office for 40 years.

They are not calling for the removal of the king. They want a constitutional monarchy. A deformed version of this exists already in neighboring Kuwait, where the Amir (Royal Prince) has extensive powers but has to work with a parliament that can force the Amir's nominated prime minister out of office. The opposition there has had majority in the parliament for several years now, but the ruling family, headed by their patriarch, the Amir, has managed to keep all important ministerial posts and remain firmly in charge of the oil revenues. Bahrainis do not think of Kuwait as their model; in Kuwait the power of the Sabah ruling family is now the focal point to political tension. The Bahrainis hope to immulate another country with which they have strong relations: Britain, where the palace has only symbolic role in the political power sytem. The Bahraini opposition, however has not spelled the details of the structure of government they seek, but insisted that power has to be shared. May be the Sunni king and the majority Shia opposition can figure a formula that suits their country. Ignoring the legitimate popular demands will only guarantee that the demonstrators will ask for more reforms.

So far the ruling family has been mobilizing public support from among the regime beneficiaries and among the Sunni minority, which is now being told that their security is in danger if they do not support the ruling family. This strategy is short-sighted, polarizing and counterproductive. Negotiation is the best way out. Can the king split the Shias in order to create a real majority that includes reform-minded Sunnis and Shias? If not, the use of force will only create a Sunni dictatorship oppressing a Shia population that is yearning for freedom.