Q & A on Egypt's January 25th Revolution

Questions from Lupe

Do you think Mubarak will leave soon?
Most likely. He is lashing out in a counterproductive way. His Baltagiah (the term Egyptians use for security officers and ruling party operatives attacking protesters) had 10 days to plan their come back. They were too few, too violent. They made no stand in other parts of the country. Their barbarism exhausted all good will Mubarak had with the U.S. government. But members of his regime will try to hang on because they stand to lose a lot. If the Egyptians come out in huge numbers tomorrow after Friday prayers, the only option Mubarak will have is to begin using heavy weaponry. From all indications, the Egyptian military will not cooperate with him. He is increasingly isolated.

Do you think the National Democratic Party (NDP) power has dissipated?
The events showed the NDP for what it is a top-down regime apparatus to create a beneficiary group from society. The most enthusiastic members are the most opportunistic. Where are they now? A few thousands of them demonstrated in Cairo (compared to hundreds of thousands there). But they were not able to mobilize in the rest of Egypt. This is not a party in the real sense of the word. In a new democratic Egypt state and party will have to be separate. When this happens there will be no NDP because it never learned to operate on its own.

What about al-Wafd Party’s announcement that it is suspending it’s activities in the revolt?
Al-Wafd is a small group that is now calculating its position in the wake of the violent attack on the protesters yesterday. If the revolt regains momentum tomorrow, they will likely rejoin. Opportunism is a counterproductive policy during revolutionary times. Their position will likely cost them a lot in the post revolution era.

What effects do you think this revolution of the people will have on other nation-states that have been similarly situated?
What we are witnessing today is Arab political culture being transformed. It a matter of a few weeks you have revolutions in two states and serious regime concessions in two other regimes, Jordan and Yemen. This tsunami is only building up. There will be ups and downs and the new political elites will make mistakes, but Arab politics as we know it is no more.

Questions from Fanny

What is the Muslim Brotherhood thinking about the future of Egypt?
The Muslim Brotherhood are the best organized group in the revolt, but they acknowledge and work with all other groups and independent voices. On February 5, 2011, Esam al-Aryan, member of the Guidance Office, told Al-Jazeera that the group wants a democratic, civil government that guarantees political freedom for everyone and have an Islamic cultural reference. As the Egyptians proceed with their discussion of a new social contract between state and society, the Muslim Brotherhood will have to compromise on what an Islamic cultural reference means to assuage the fears of Copts.

What if the Muslim Brotherhood is only showing tolerance until they grab power? This highly unlikely because they have practiced the tolerance they are showing today for half a century. Yes, there is authoritarianism within Muslim Brotherhood ranks, but this is true for other groups as well. Arab political culture today is anti-dictatorship; but Arabs will develop democratic mores through trial and error. If the Muslim Brothers come to power and renege on the commitments they made, their fate will be like the fate of the regimes they have deposed.