The January 25 Revolution has shocked all Egyptians, although many of them were for years waiting for it to happen. Young Egyptians led the charge to change their regime, but the older politicians--in both regime and opposition--might still be stuck in the dynamics of the past. Today, February 6, 2011, is the day of Christian-Muslim unity at Tahrir Square in the beginnin of the Week of Sumud (Steadfastness).
But the Presidential Palace witnessed a dynamic of different sort. Vice President Omar Sulieman invited leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood for a meeting. They went despite warnings from Al-Ghad (Future) Party leader Ayman Nour that the regime is playing the game of splitting the opposition. But opposition parties have never been unified and most non-Islamist groups fit the description of veteran Egyptian journalist Muhammad Haykal "paper parties."
The MB may be large in numbers but it has no real strategists, no public relations experts and no professional negotiators. According to al-Jazeera, they went to meet with Sulieman to gauge the seriousness of the regime. The VP told them that he is dealing with a crisis without having any decision-making powers--a clear admission that Mubarak is still fully in charge. Haunted by a legacy of radical expression and a world image of extremism, the leaders continued the meeting. They presented the following road map for the transition:
"The presidency shall be assumed by the head of theSupreme Constitutional Court; a transitional government shall be formed; fair parliamentary elections in accordance with the present constitution shall be held under the supervision of the entire judiciary; the new paliament shall modify the constitution and oversee a presidential election."
After the meeting with Sulieman, MB leaders held a press conference in which they suggested that they will wait only a day or two to give Suleiman time to begin responding to popular demands. They also hinted that negotiations can proceed while protests continue. Abdel Menem Abul Futuh, member of MB Guidance Office, said that the real authority now is the military and that it is futile to contine meeting with Suleiman. But they knew this before they decided to accept the Sulieman invitation. So are they selling the revolution?
MB leaders are striving to project an image of pragmatism and skill as they play the role of mediator between the falling regime and the revolting Egyptian street in a time of transition. They justified their decision to meet by pointing out that they have already gained an important concession: a promise not to use violence against the protesters. At Tahrir Square, the demonstrators are testing the intentions of the military through small actions. They have created human chains stationed in front of tanks to stop them from moving or clearing any blocked roads in protest territory. This is a calculated move aiming to train military officers that the civilians will decide the distance (and thereby the nature of) civilian-military relations in the new state.
The protesters are handling the military with skill. The failure of the military to protect them when the regime mobs attacked them raised their doubts about the position of the military leaders. Their behavior indicates they suspect the top level of leadership is still loyal to Mubarak. But the protesters want to stay in good terms with the soldiers on the street who, if things escalate, will have to decide whether to follow the orders of their superiors.
But the VP seems to aim at a nubmer of objectives: (1) regaining the initiative by meeting with the opposition on his terms, which he has achieved for now; (2) splitting the opposition, which he has not yet; and (3) gaining time to break the will of demonstrators; but their numbers are holding steady. Yesterday, Egyptian Television showed him meeting with young men and women. He also met with the self-initiated Committee of Wise People, a group of highly respected independent leaders and former high ranking government officials. But the protesters in Tahrir Square said none of the leaders meeting with Sulieman speak for the revolutionary youth coalition, which is now the main organizing force of the daily activities of the uprising.
The next episode hinges on any new initiative from the protesters, the Mubarak inner circle or the military. In Tunisia, it took four weeks before Ben Ali departed the country. Egypt is still in Day 12. As for the MB, they have two days (by their own announcement) before they will have to re-evaluate their position or to begin losing credibility with the revolutionaries in Tahrir Square. To head off such possibility, they held a press conference after the meeting to re-align themselves with the street. The MB leaders claimed that they did not want the regime to claim that the protesters closed the path of a peaceful resolution. They insisted that they presented the demands of the revolting people and will continue to insist that Mubarak steps down. The regime has used the MB as a scapegoat for its repressive rule; now it is offering them the chance to sharpen their leadership skills. But this is not the final chapter in the exchange. Al-Baradei who was not invited to meet with Sulieman criticized the idea of meeting with a regime whose legitimacy has evaporated. He made this statement after Mustafa al-Naggar, a leader of al-Baradei's National Coalition for Change met with Sulieman. MB leader Abdul Menem Abul Futouh shared a similar doubts about the utility of meetings and emphasized that no one has the right to speak on behalf of the young protesters who launched the revolt and continue to be the main force in it. While the Mubarak regime may now believe it has retained control, the opposition believes it has shown good will but came out thinking that the regime has not gotten the message of the people. The next week is planned for further mobilization, not only around Tahrir Square but also in schools and neighborhoods across the country.
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