Qaddafis Pursuing their Narrative

Qaddafi is now giving a talk during his 34th annual celebration of people power rule. He said what his son Saif al-Islam had warned against has come true. His son had said that foreign companies would leave, Libya would divide, and a civil war would engulf Libya. Qaddafi said the outside world is misinformed about what is going on in his country and have fallen victim to international media outlets that hated Qaddafi and powers that have their eyes on Libyan oil.

He said that pursuing his concept of people rule the state's security brigades have been training people in different parts of Libya on the use of arms to help them defend themselves in case of a foreign invasion. What happened after the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt was that some former Guantanamo detainees and supporters in towns in the East ganged up and attacked security installations and stole weapons. The Qaddafi regime ordered his local security forces to pull out rather than spill Libyan blood. But in the initial confrontation tens of people were killed from both sides. The residents seen demonstrating in streets were relatives of those killed from both sides protesting this resort to violence.

Qaddafi denied that there is massive rejection of his rule and blamed the armed rebels for terrorizing the civilians in the towns that fell to rebel hands. Again, he stressed that his forces do not wish to fight and have not begun to push back. But now that the rebels are spreading chaos in the country, he will have to fight back. He said that his fight will be legitimate since he will be fighting against the possibility of establishing a terrorist al-Qaida rule in Libya.

Why would a regime in power just choose to surrender to small bands of rebels in each town? Al-Qaddafi's explanation is that these rebels are people too and that he empowered them because his revolution was meant to bring power to the people. But now terrorists have exploited this state of affair.

The opposition says that the revolt began with civilians taking to the streets to demonstrate peacefully. They were met with the violence of members of the security brigades (or those among them who were loyal to Qaddafi's rule). People then went against the security installations and overpowered the remnants of the Qaddafi regime in their towns.

It would be interesting to see if the opposition now restores the civilian image of the revolution by calling for a massive show of civilian will in all the towns liberated from the regime of the Qaddafi family. Otherwise, there will be room for cynicism about the nature of what is going on in Libya. Is it a rebellion by tribesmen who think they haven't had equal share of the oil wealth? Were the confrontations around the security installations staged by the secret agents of Qaddafi himself to create the ongoing dynamic as a way to head off a massive peaceful call for change? Or may be we are witnessing a unique case of regime change in Libya, where tribal forces and modern societal formations have not been able to mesh cohesively yet to demonstrate to the world how trivial their dictator is.

The Qaddafis want the world to think that the Libya is now in the middle of a civil war and they have the right to defend themselves and restore order. But the Qaddafis seem increasingly isolated and dellusional. The Colonel denies that he is in charge, but only his son is coming forward to vouch for the regime. The Qaddafis may still have supporters and assets. Their relatives alone can put up some fight, but those in the outer circles of support will increasingly reach a conclusion that the days of the regime are numbered and they better switch sides before it is too late. These elements will be more convinced if they see the outpouring civilian support for a peaceful change. Will the opposition be able to prove that Qaddafi is isolated by the people of Libya? In the next few days, this is going to be main task of the revolution. But again, this revolt does not seem to be as organized as its Tunisian or Egyptian counterpart.